Probabilistic projection of subnational total fertility rates
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Bayesian Probabilistic Projection of International Migration Rates
We propose a method for obtaining joint probabilistic projections of migration rates for all countries, broken down by age and sex. Joint trajectories for all countries are constrained to satisfy the requirement of zero global net migration. We evaluate our model using out-of-sample validation and compare point projections to the projected migration rates from a persistence model similar to the...
متن کاملProbabilistic projections of the total fertility rate for all countries.
We describe a Bayesian projection model to produce country-specific projections of the total fertility rate (TFR) for all countries. The model decomposes the evolution of TFR into three phases: pre-transition high fertility, the fertility transition, and post-transition low fertility. The model for the fertility decline builds on the United Nations Population Division's current deterministic pr...
متن کاملSparse Probabilistic Relational Projection
Probabilistic relational PCA (PRPCA) can learn a projection matrix to perform dimensionality reduction for relational data. However, the results learned by PRPCA lack interpretability because each principal component is a linear combination of all the original variables. In this paper, we propose a novel model, called sparse probabilistic relational projection (SPRP), to learn a sparse projecti...
متن کاملPersistence and probabilistic projection
Predicting the future is an essential component of decisionmaking. In most situations, however, there is not enough information to make accurate predictions. A theory of causal reasoning for predictive inference under uncertainty is developed. A common type of prediction that involves reasoning about persistence is emphasized whether or not a proposition once made true remains true at some late...
متن کاملbayesTFR: An R Package for Probabilistic Projections of the Total Fertility Rate.
The bayesTFR package for R provides a set of functions to produce probabilistic projections of the total fertility rate (TFR) for all countries. In the model, a random walk with drift is used to project the TFR during the fertility transition, using a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate the parameters of the drift term. The TFR is modeled with a first order autoregressive process during the...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Demographic Research
سال: 2018
ISSN: 1435-9871
DOI: 10.4054/demres.2018.38.60